Bitcoin traded lower on Wednesday as traders took profits through the June close. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is on track for a record price drop of 41% in the second quarter and had a winning streak in the fourth quarter, with prices increasing six-fold to nearly $ 65,000 in April.
The last quarter’s crypto sell-off was sparked by regulatory crackdowns, monetary tightening concerns, environmental issues and a slowdown in institutional demand. Sales stabilized in June, leaving Bitcoin in a tight range between $ 30,000 and $ 40,000.
Bitcoin was trading at around $ 34,000 at press time and is down about 4% in the past 24 hours.
“Price fluctuations reinforce the idea that volatility is a fundamental part of an emerging and expanding market,” wrote Steve Elrich, CEO of the Voyager Digital crypto exchange, in an email to CoinDesk. “Investors are still buying the dip.”
- S&P 500: 4300.4, + 0.2%
- Gold: $ 1,769.5, + 0.5%
- The 10-year government bond yield closed at 1.458% compared to 1.473% on Tuesday
Relative performance in June
Bitcoin outperformed other major market cap cryptocurrencies in June, down 2.7% versus more than 30% down on XRP, EOS and LINK.
The decline in altcoins stabilized Bitcoin’s dominance ratio, or relative market share, at around 45%. However, there are signs that altcoin demand has increased in recent weeks.
“While Bitcoin remains in our top weekly net buys, we’re seeing other altcoins gaining popularity after their slump, including SHIB and ETH, which took the top two spots of the week,” Elrich wrote.
The chart shows June performance for the CoinDesk 20 list of the top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
The volatility of Bitcoin and Ether remains elevated, albeit lower than the highs of January 2020. While both cryptocurrencies have seen extremely volatile fluctuations in the past year, the traditional markets have remained relatively calm.
The chart shows the 30-day volatilities of BTC, ETH and traditional assets.
Bitcoin options probability
The Bitcoin options market sees a 65% chance that the price will stay above $ 20,000 through the end of the year. And there’s a 20% chance Bitcoin will return over $ 50,000, according to options data provider Skew.
Bitcoin technicals are also improving as signs of exhaustion hit the bottom of the charts last week, according to DeMark Indicators. This suggests that buyers could remain active above the $ 30,000 support over the medium term.
The diagram shows the probabilities of Bitcoin options at different strike prices.
Lower returns after “death cross”
Bitcoin registered a “death cross” as the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average on June 19th. Typically, a death cross signals a shift from a bullish to a bearish trend and occurs after an initial price sell-off.
Returns after a Death Cross event can vary and tend to be low to negative. “We conclude from this [the death cross] over 1, 3, 6 and 12 months is not a consistent price prediction for downtrends, ”CoinShares tweeted on June 22nd.
The chart and table show forward returns after Bitcoin registers a “death cross”.
Bitcoin hashrate is stabilizing
Bitcoin hash rate has stabilized after falling for 10 straight days, and industry experts speculate that the worst effects of the recent mining raid in China may be over.
Bitcoin’s average seven-day hashrate was 90.6 exahashes per second on Tuesday, up slightly from 90.5 EH / s on Monday. According to Glassnode, the number is still around half lower than the peak rate reached in mid-May.
According to Sam Doctor, chief strategy officer at BitOoda, a digital asset financial services platform, most of the reduction is due to China’s move to stop cryptocurrency mining operations in the country, with a small portion coming from Iran.
“We believe there isn’t much active hashrate left in China,” Doctor said in an email to CoinDesk.
Bitcoin’s average block interval exceeds 23 minutes.
Source: Arcane Research
- Ethererum mining: The credits of the Ethereum 2.0 validators range from 30 ETH to 65 ETH. The main reason for the extreme inequality is not because some validators are more profitable than others or because some validators started earning network rewards earlier than others. About 168 validators out of 178,000 simply deposited their minimum stake of 32 ETH twice by mistake, explained CoinDesk’s Christine Kim.
- USDC extension: CoinDesk has learned that USDC, the stablecoin that is now at home in four blockchains, could soon be in eight to ten other networks. This would be the most comprehensive expansion of $ 25 billion stablecoin yet, and could outperform the eight blockchains that Tethers USDT, the market leader with a market cap of $ 63 billion, supports.
Most of the digital assets on CoinDesk 20 were lower on Wednesday.
Notable Winners as of 9:00 PM UTC (4:00 PM ET):
Yearn Finance (YFI) -4.43%