ICO sees global coffee deficit next season, bumps up 2020/21 surplus forecast


LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) – The International Coffee Organization raised its 2020-21 global coffee surplus forecast in its June monthly report, but said production is likely to fall below global demand for the next season.

The ICO raised its surplus estimate for 2020/21 to 2.30 million bags in June from 2.01 million bags in May, mainly due to a lower consumption forecast.

Consumption is now 167.20 million bags this season, down from 167.58 million bags and below the pre-pandemic 168.5 million.

The ICO expects production from many countries, not least Brazil, to decline over the next season and consumption to continue to rise as pandemic restrictions are relaxed and the economy recovers.

There was no figure for the projected deficit for the next season.

Global coffee exports totaled 9.8 million 60 kg bags in May 2021, 10.1% less than last year, the ICO said, but additional exports in the first eight months of the season rose to 87.3 million bags from 85.4 million a year ago.

(Reporting by Maytaal Angel; editing by Jason Neely)